In the Gap
Learning to Hold Uncertainty Well
We humans spend most of our days trying - and often succeeding - to keep uncertainty at bay. Most of the time, you don’t even notice it. It happens under the radar, disguised as habits, assumptions, or mental shortcuts.
Our minds lean on these biases to provide a sense of stability in the world. For instance, confirmation bias reinforces our existing beliefs, selective attention causes us to overlook information that seems irrelevant, and narrative bias organizes events into a coherent story, even when reality is far more complex and chaotic. These are just a few examples. There are many more.
These shortcuts may save energy, but they also narrow our view. As Matthew Facciani reminds us in his book Misguided, these filters aren’t just about efficiency. They’re also about identity. Beliefs are tied to who we are and where we belong. That means navigating uncertainty isn’t only cognitive, it’s also social. Questioning an identity can feel like questioning yourself, your values, even your community.1
And these identities don’t exist in a vacuum. They’re constantly in feedback with our environment, shaping and reinforcing how we interpret information and how we act. Once we develop them, we become psychologically motivated to maintain consistency between the information we encounter and the values of the roles and groups we hold. In this way, identities are more than personal labels. They’re one of our brain’s most powerful tools for mitigating uncertainty. They offer ready-made scripts for how to think, act, and belong, thereby reducing the need to constantly renegotiate our place in the world. In moments of ambiguity, identity steps in to stabilize us: this is who I am, this is what I value, this is where I fit. That sense of coherence provides relief, even if it sometimes comes at the expense of flexibility or openness.
The Brain on Uncertainty
If psychology reveals the shortcuts, neuroscience shows us the circuitry behind them. At its most basic level, the brain is a prediction engine, constantly trying to anticipate what will happen next as a way to reduce the stress of uncertainty. When the world doesn’t match its expectations, a “prediction error” forces a response. Our emotional systems kick in: the amygdala flags ambiguity as a potential threat, the anterior cingulate cortex detects conflict and error, and the prefrontal cortex works to make sense of it all.In other words, uncertainty and the prediction errors it generates aren’t just cognitive. They’re also emotional events that heighten vigilance.
In that moment, the brain has a choice: update its model of the world or double down on the old one. Both require energy, but updating demands more. And because our physiology, brains included, are designed to conserve energy whenever possible, the pull toward efficiency is strong. As Lisa Feldman Barrett puts it, our brains are “lazy prediction machines.”2 Evolution has wired them to save effort wherever they can: change = uncertainty, and uncertainty = more energy demanded from a brain that prefers stability.
The Uncertainty Gap
But there’s another wrinkle: in moments of uncertainty, the brain isn’t only conserving energy or feeling anxious. It’s also primed for learning. That prediction error creates an opening where we’re more receptive to new information. What gets placed in that vulnerable space matters. Sometimes it’s accurate guidance that helps us grow. Other times, it’s simplistic narratives, rigid beliefs, or group identities that rush in to restore order.
Psychologists like Michael Hogg, founder of Uncertainty–Identity Theory, remind us that this drive to avoid ambiguity isn’t just cognitive or neural: it’s social. When we feel uncertain about ourselves, we look for groups, roles, or belief systems that provide stability. Belonging offers the safety of clarity, or at least the feeling of it. We know who we are and how to act.
Research shows that in times of high uncertainty, people are especially drawn to extreme groups with rigid boundaries and authoritarian leaders, because those groups step into the uncertainty gap and provide identity, structure, and clarity where ambiguity feels unbearable.3 Similarly, religious traditions can buffer uncertainty by offering rituals, narratives, and communities that stabilize identity and provide meaning when life feels unpredictable.4
Uncertainty opens the door, and identity comes rushing in. Sometimes it leads to growth. Other times, to rigidity.
Some Good News
The same processes that can pull people toward extremism can, under different conditions, foster resilience, cooperation, and collective good. Research indicates that individuals with higher identity complexity, characterized by holding multiple, non-overlapping identities, are less susceptible to extremism or misinformation. When one identity feels shaky, others can steady them.5 The opposite is also true. When a person’s identities completely overlap, for instance, when their religious identity shapes their work, family, friendships, and worldview, a threat to one identity feels like a threat to all. The more we can embrace and foster identity complexity, the more resilient we become in the face of uncertainty.
As Matt Facciani notes in Misguided, becoming more aware of your own identities and how they shape your biases, loyalties, and blind spots is itself a protective factor.¹ Knowing which parts of your identity make you feel most vulnerable allows you to face uncertainty with more discernment, rather than being unconsciously pulled into rigidity. This awareness can also guide us in cultivating communities that anchor us in values such as openness, curiosity, and compassion. Leaders who model humility and tolerance for ambiguity reduce the craving for authoritarian certainty. Rituals, whether spiritual or secular, can provide rhythm and grounding without shutting the door to growth.
In practice, this might look like pausing to notice when you’re in uncertainty or when a belief is challenged, and choosing to respond with curiosity rather than defensiveness. It might mean noticing when you’re gripping one identity too tightly, and intentionally developing diverse roles that give you more anchors. It can also mean cultivating identities and communities that prize intellectual humility, openness, or compassion, so that when uncertainty arises, your instinct is to learn rather than to shut down. These practices help transform uncertainty into an opportunity rather than a threat, providing a practical strategy for building resilience to uncertainty.
The Space Between
Uncertainty will always be part of life, and our human brains are wired to wrestle with it- advanced enough to imagine countless possibilities, yet primal enough to cling to what feels familiar and efficient. In the gap between the pull of the familiar and the invitation of change lies something vital: a space for growth, learning, and creativity.
If we can meet uncertainty with awareness, humility, and curiosity, it becomes less of a threat. It becomes an opening, an invitation to grow, connect, and imagine new possibilities.
In essence, resilience isn’t the absence of uncertainty. It’s the art of growing through it.
Photo by Artem Sapegin on Unsplash
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1 Matt Facciani, Misguided: Where Misinformation Starts, How It Spreads, and What to Do about It (New York: Columbia University Press, 2025).
2 Barrett, L. F. (2021b). Seven and a half lessons about the brain. Picador.
3 Hogg, M. A., & Adelman, J. (2013). Uncertainty–identity theory: Extreme groups, radical behavior, and authoritarian leadership. Journal of Social Issues, 69(3), 436–454. https://doi.org/10.1111/josi.12023
4 Hogg, M. A., Adelman, J. R., & Blagg, R. D. (2009). Religion in the face of uncertainty: An uncertainty-identity theory account of religiousness. Personality and Social Psychology Review, 14(1), 72–83. https://doi.org/10.1177/1088868309349692
5 Roccas, S., & Brewer, M. B. (2002). Social Identity complexity. Personality and Social Psychology Review, 6(2), 88–106. https://doi.org/10.1207/s15327957pspr0602_01